2009 MLB Totals

Bodog has released their list of 2009 MLB Totals and around the same time a popular baseball blog, Replacement Level Yankees, ran projections of the season using the top 6 projection systems. They ran each system 1000 times and then averaged out the results of all 6000 seasons. It’s interesting to me how closely the projections matched up with the Bodog total with many being exactly or within decimal points of the same total. What I found even more interesting is how a handful of teams ended up being three or more wins better or worse than the Bodog total. Does this make them good bets? In theory, yes. However, this is the season played 6000 times and things could end up quite a bit differently with injuries and breakout seasons from players when you only play it once. However, this isn’t that far from the way Vegas bookmakers do it and to see a difference of three or more wins makes a decent prop bet.

Team	Bodog	Diamond Mind
Arizona Diamondbacks	86.5	83.7
Atlanta Braves	84.5	86.7
Baltimore Orioles	71.5	74.5
Boston Red Sox	94.5	94.3
Chicago Cubs	92.5	91.5
Chicago White Sox	78.5	74.1
Cincinatti Reds	78.5	77.8
Cleveland Indians	85.5	85.5
Colorado Rockies	77.5	79
Detroit Tigers	81.5	81.4
Florida Marlins	75.5	72.5
Houston Astros	73.5	73
Kansas City Royals	75.5	74.6
Los Angeles Angels	88.5	85.4
Los Angeles Dodgers	84.5	87.8
Milwaukee Brewers	80.5	81.9
Minnesota Twins	83.5	79.5
New York Mets	89.5	88.1
New York Yankees	95.5	95.9
Oakland As	82.5	81.1
Philadelphia Phillies	88.5	86
Pittsburgh Pirates	67.5	69.8
San Diego Padres	71.5	74.5
San Francisco Giants	80.5	79.3
Seattle Mariners	72.5	77.8
St. Louis Cardinals	82.5	84.1
Tampa Bay Rays	88.5	90.1
Texas Rangers	74.5	72.1
Toronto Blue Jays	79.5	75.6
Washington Nationals	71.5	72.7