2009 MLB Totals
Bodog has released their list of 2009 MLB Totals and around the same time a popular baseball blog, Replacement Level Yankees, ran projections of the season using the top 6 projection systems. They ran each system 1000 times and then averaged out the results of all 6000 seasons. It’s interesting to me how closely the projections matched up with the Bodog total with many being exactly or within decimal points of the same total. What I found even more interesting is how a handful of teams ended up being three or more wins better or worse than the Bodog total. Does this make them good bets? In theory, yes. However, this is the season played 6000 times and things could end up quite a bit differently with injuries and breakout seasons from players when you only play it once. However, this isn’t that far from the way Vegas bookmakers do it and to see a difference of three or more wins makes a decent prop bet.
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By N2H